Mental Floss

How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day Weather Predictions?

The stats indicate that practice doesn’t always make perfect when it comes to mid-sized meterological rodents.

ByEllen Gutoskey|
Punxsutawney Phil is not the most reliable weather predictor.
Punxsutawney Phil is not the most reliable weather predictor. | Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

On Sunday, February 2, 2025, Punxsutawney Phil will crawl forth from his tiny tree trunk abode and predict whether there will be another six weeks of winter. Considering that the legendary groundhog has been forecasting the weather since the first Groundhog Day in 1887, it seems safe to assume that he’s gotten pretty good at it by now.

The stats, however, indicate that practice doesn’t always make perfect when it comes to mid-sized meteorological rodents. As Live Science reported, the Groundhog Club’s records show that as of 2024, Phil has predicted more winter 108 times, and an early spring just 21. (There are nine years without any records at all.) Based on data from the Stormfax Almanac, that means Phil’s accuracy rate is an abysmal 39 percent. If you only look at weather records dating back to 1969, which are more reliable than earlier accounts, Phil’s job performance review gets even worse: those predictions were correct only 36 percent of the time.

Starting to feel sorry for an apparently lousy employee who only has to work for a few minutes each year? According to meteorologist Tim Roche at Weather Underground, Punxsutawney Phil is much more successful when he doesn’t see his shadow. “Out of the 15 times that he didn’t see his shadow and predicted an early spring, he got it right seven times,” Roche told Live Science. “That’s a 47 percent accuracy rate.”

Phil isn’t the only weather-predicting animal out there. In 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decided to see how Phil did compared to the competition based on their predictions from the past 20 years—and he ended up near the bottom of the pile. Even taxidermied groundhogs performed better.

RANK

PROGNOSTICATOR

STATE

ACCURACY (%)

1

Staten Island Chuck (groundhog)

NY

85%

2

General Beauregard Lee (groundhog)

GA

80%

3

Lander Lil (prairie dog statue)

WY

75%

4

Concord Charlie (never seen, but presumed groundhog)

WV

65%

5

Gertie the Groundhog

IL

65%

6

Jimmy the Groundhog

WI

60%

7

Woodstock Willie (groundhog)

IL

60%

8

Buckeye Chuck (groundhog)

OH

55%

9

French Creek Freddie (groundhog)

WV

55%

10

Malverne Mel (groundhog)

NY

55%

11

Octoraro Orphie (groundhog)

PA

52.63%

12

Dunkirk Dave (groundhog)

NY

50%

13

Holtsville Hal (groundhog)

NY

50%

14

Poor Richard (taxidermied groundhog)

PA

50%

15

Uni the Groundhog (taxidermied groundhog)

PA

47.37%

16

Schnogadahl Sammi (taxidermied groundhog)

PA

38.89%

17

Punxsatawney Phil (groundhog)

PA

35%

18

Woodie the Woodchuck (groundhog)

WI

35%

19

Mojave Max (tortoise)

NV

25%

There is a caveat, though—some of the animals in the ranking didn’t make predictions for each of the past 20 years.

While Phil is far from infallible, human meteorologists are, too. As National Weather Service meteorologist David Unger told Live Science, “If our forecasts are about 60 percent accurate or higher, then we consider that to be a good estimate.”

Read More Stories About Groundhog Day:

A version of this story ran in 2020; it has been updated for 2025.

Home/BIG QUESTIONS