Your Storm Forecast Is Going to Get More Precise

iStock
iStock

Just about every alert you hear before a storm creeps up on the horizon was issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). We use this federal agency's services almost every day without thinking about it. Daily forecasts, storm alerts, weather radars, and satellite images are all produced by thousands of meteorologists who work day and night to keep us safe. One part of keeping us safe is making sure we understand what they're trying to tell us. After all, what good is a warning if you don't know exactly what they're trying to say? The NWS is working to simplify the warning process to give us better information and help us make better decisions to stay safe during hazardous weather.

Right now, the NWS issues dozens of different alerts that cover all sorts of dangerous conditions. These alerts are called watches, advisories, and warnings, with each respective category carrying a greater sense of urgency. There are alerts for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods, hurricanes, winter storms, and even conditions like dense fog or blowing dust.

The sheer number of alerts can be daunting, not to mention the sometimes-convoluted language forecasters use to tell us what's going on. It's easy to miss the distinction between a tornado watch and a tornado warning, for example. The Hazards Simplification Project is an ongoing effort within the National Weather Service to whittle down the number of alerts and use clearer language to give us a leg-up on dangerous weather conditions.

The first couple of changes will go into effect later in 2017. The NWS currently issues 10 different alerts for winter weather events such as blizzards, ice storms, lake effect snow, and snowstorms. In the winter, the agency will reduce the number of alerts to just six. They're getting rid of the blizzard watch, for example, merging it with the winter storm watch. Winter weather alerts will also be issued in a “what/where/when” format, outlining exactly how much snow or ice you can expect, where it's expected, and when it's expected to happen. Previously, you had to scour a few paragraphs of text to figure out what was coming your way.

The NWS will also look into changing their weather maps to display just four different colors when weather alerts are in effect—a dramatic change from the hodgepodge of colors that smear weather maps today. Each weather alert currently has its own unique color on weather maps, so these maps are almost indecipherable when there's a lot of active weather across the country. The agency may soon replace all of these colors with just four hues—yellow, orange, red, and purple—to convey the severity and urgency of the alert in effect.

improved hazardous weather map from the NOAA
A swath showing the probability of a tornado near Birmingham, Alabama, under the new FACETs project. The old tornado warning polygon is outlined in red.
NOAA/NSSL

There are also some big changes in the works for warnings in the future. Meteorologists used to issue tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for entire counties, which didn't work out too well as some counties in the United States are enormous compared to the size of a single thunderstorm. About a decade ago, they reduced these warnings to polygons that covered just the area expected to be impacted by the storm. This greatly reduced false alarms and helped warn only the people who needed to take shelter.

In the next couple of years, the NWS will roll out a project called Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs). This project will reduce those old warning polygons even further into a swath that shows the probability that a certain area will be affected by a tornado, large hail, or damaging winds. The resulting warning area, seen above, looks similar to the cone of uncertainty forecasters use ahead of hurricanes and covers a much smaller area than the old polygons. This will allow forecasters to warn only those directly affected by the approaching hazards, reducing false-alarm rates even further and giving people greater confidence that they should take action right away instead of waiting it out.

Lake Michigan Has Frozen Over, and It's an Incredible Sight

Scott Olson, Getty Images
Scott Olson, Getty Images

A polar vortex has brought deadly temperatures to the Midwest this week, and the weather is having a dramatic effect on one of the region's most famous features. As the Detroit Free Press reports, parts of Lake Michigan have frozen over, and the ice coverage continues to grow.

The Lake Michigan ice extent has increased rapidly throughout January, starting around 1 percent on the first of the month and expanding to close to 40 percent by the end of the month. Yesterday was the coldest January 30 in Chicago history, with temperatures at O'Hare Airport dropping to -23°F. Even though it's frozen, steam can be seen rising off Lake Michigan—something that happens when the air above the lake is significantly colder than the surface. You can watch a stream of this happening from a live cam below.

Lake Michigan's ice coverage is impressive, as these pictures show, but it's still far from breaking a record. Though Lake Michigan has never frozen over completely, it came close during the winter of 1993 to 1994 when ice reached 95 percent coverage.

Midwestern states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana aren't the only places that have been hit hard by the cold this winter. At the United States/Canada border, Niagara Falls froze to a stop in some spots, a phenomenon that also produced some stunning photographs.


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[h/t Detroit Free Press]

Why You Need to Keep Your Car's Gas Tank Full in Cold Weather

iStock.com/Chalabala
iStock.com/Chalabala

Schools, trains, and the U.S. Postal Service have shut down this week as a polar vortex brings negative double-digit temperatures to the Midwest. Even if residents won't be doing much traveling as long as the dangerous weather persists, they'd benefit from keeping a full tank of gas in their cars: According to the Detroit Free Press, it's an easy way to prevent fuel lines from freezing.

One common reason cars struggle to start in cold weather is blocked-up fuel lines. These tubes are thin, and if there's any moisture in them when temperatures drop to extreme levels, they can freeze, causing blockages that prevent fuel from flowing.

Gasoline, on the other hand, doesn't freeze as easily. It maintains its liquid state in subzero temperatures, like those currently hitting parts of the U.S., so when a gas tank is full, those fuel lines are better equipped to handle to the cold.

If you filled up your tank before the recent cold snap and your car still won't start, it may have something to do with your antifreeze levels. Your car's radiator needs water to work properly, and antifreeze is what keeps the water liquid when temperatures dip below 32°F.

Of course, if temperatures have already dropped to dangerous levels in your area, it's not worth it to drive to the gas station to refuel or run out to stock up on antifreeze. Instead, keep these car maintenance tips in mind for the next time an arctic blast rolls in to town. And when it is safe enough to drive again, resist heating up your engine in the driveway: Letting your car idle in the cold can actually shorten the engine's lifespan.

[h/t Detroit Free Press]

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