Scott Olson/Getty Images
Scott Olson/Getty Images

Storms Head Across the U.S. This Week

Scott Olson/Getty Images
Scott Olson/Getty Images

We just lived through one of the warmest winters in recent memory. The warmth and relative lack of storminess was odd compared to a normal year, but the weather was downright quiet compared to what we've seen over the last couple of years. Unfortunately, our luck is running out as the Sun creeps into the Northern Hemisphere and the atmosphere slowly warms up. The clash of the seasons will cause a steady train of storms to glide across the country through the end of March, bringing along with them noticeably rapid changes in weather from day to day, including the risk for severe thunderstorms and some beneficial heavy rainfall.

The forecast position of the jet stream from the GFS weather model on the evening of Monday, March 27, 2017, showing three troughs (southward dips) in the jet stream as they cross the United States. Image Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 
Current weather models suggest that a series of upper-level troughs—elongated areas of lower air pressure—will come ashore on the West Coast every couple of days for the next two weeks, each wave taking about three days to traverse the length of the United States before retreating over the Atlantic Ocean. Each trough will be sandwiched between ridges of high pressure, which are associated with warmer air and calmer skies. This trough-ridge combination will allow warm, unstable air to flow north from the Gulf of Mexico before the trough arrives to take advantage of the favorable atmosphere ahead of it. The end result will be heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which could turn severe.

The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms with each wave will lie across the southern Plains and interior sections of the Gulf Coast states, exactly where you'd expect dangerous weather to develop at the end of March. The extent of the severe weather depends on how much instability, moisture, and wind shear are present when the storms bubble up. If the right mix of ingredients doesn't come together at the right time, the weather won't be much more than an inconvenience. If storms are able to take advantage of the right conditions, though, all types of severe weather—damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes—will be possible with each outbreak of severe thunderstorms.

It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that severe weather is ramping up as we get closer to April. We're rapidly approaching prime season for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The average number of tornadoes that touch down each day climbs rapidly between the end of March and the beginning of summer, with each day of spring becoming historically more favorable for nasty severe weather outbreaks.

The Weather Prediction Center's precipitation forecast (in inches) between March 24 and March 31, 2017. Image Credit: NOAA/WPC

 
The silver lining to the cycles between calm and stormy is that it will bring much-needed rain to just about everyone east of the Rockies who are currently experiencing drought conditions. The same weather pattern that allowed California to climb out of its drought in just a couple of months also dried the eastern half of the country to the point of drought. Moderate to severe drought conditions covered nearly 16 percent of the contiguous United States on the U.S. Drought Monitor's analysis for March 21, with the worst drought covering the central Plains and much of the East Coast.

Rain from the upcoming train of storm systems will drop several inches of rain over a widespread area, helping to put a small dent in the drought. It won't be enough to cure the parched earth in many places, but as Californians will tell you, any amount of rain can help.

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Weather Watch
Why Does the Sky Look Green Before a Tornado?
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A common bit of folklore from tornado-prone parts of the U.S. says that when the skies start taking on an emerald hue, it's time to run inside. But why do tornadoes tend to spawn green skies in the first place? As SciShow's Michael Aranda explains, the answer has to do with the way water droplets reflect the colors of the light spectrum.

During the day, the sky is usually blue because the shorter, bluer end of the light spectrum bounces off air molecules better than than redder, longer-wavelength light. Conditions change during the sunset (and sunrise), when sunlight has to travel through more air, and when storms are forming, which means there are more water droplets around.

Tornadoes forming later in the day, around sunset, do a great job of reflecting the green part of the light spectrum that's usually hidden in a sunset because of the water droplets in the clouds, which bounce green light into our eyes. But that doesn't necessarily mean a twister is coming—it could just mean a lot of rain is in the forecast. Either way, heading inside is probably a good idea.

For the full details on how water and light conspire to turn the sky green before a storm, check out the SciShow video below.

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New Contest Will Give Kids the Chance to Become Weather Channel Meteorologists for a Day
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Not every kid dreams of being an on-air meteorologist, but for young ‘uns obsessed with storm forecasts and local weather reports, a new contest presents a unique opportunity to live out their dreams. The Mini Meteorologist Contest, sponsored by Lands’ End, will give four kids a chance to present a weather report on The Weather Channel this summer.

The nationwide contest is open to future meteorologists in the U.S. and Canada ages 6 to 16. To enter, they just have to write an essay between 50 and 500 words long on why they love learning about science and weather and why they’d like to be a meteorologist for a day. Four winners will receive a trip for them and their parents to The Weather Channel’s headquarters in Atlanta. They’ll have the opportunity to report the weather for the show on July 12, which happens to be National Summer Learning Day.

The essays will be judged based in equal parts on creativity, grammar, and the entrant’s love of meteorology. The only rules for the essays are that they can’t mention any products or brands other than Lands’ End or The Weather Channel (so no essays about how L.L. Bean inspired your love of cloud formations, kids) and has to be the child’s original work. Kids who are chosen as semi-finalists will have their on-air presentation skills judged in a Skype interview.

Should they win, they’ll get an inclusive trip to Atlanta with media training, a tour of The Weather Channel headquarters, and a $500 Lands’ End gift card to get just the right weather-reporting wardrobe.

The deadline for entering is May 21. Essays can be submitted here.

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