5 Theories About Amelia Earhart's Disappearance

In 1937, celebrated aviator Amelia Earhart embarked on her second attempt to circumnavigate the globe—and on July 2, she and navigator Fred Noonan vanished while flying over the Pacific Ocean, en route to a largely uninhabited coral atoll called Howland Island. To this day, Earhart’s fate remains a mystery. But over the years, experts and conspiracy theorists alike have come up with numerous theories to explain her disappearance. Here's a small sampling of them.


Many experts believe that Earhart’s Lockheed Model 10 Electra never arrived on Howland Island because it ran out of gas, crashed, and sank in the Pacific Ocean.

The aviator’s world flight began in Oakland, California, on May 21, 1937, and on June 29, she and Noonan reached Lae, New Guinea. A few days later, the duo embarked on the journey’s third-to-last leg: a 2556-mile nonstop flight to Howland Island, a tiny coral atoll in the South Pacific. There, they planned to refuel before traveling to Hawaii, and then California.

At 6:14 a.m. on July 2, Earhart and Noonan’s plane made radio contact with U.S. Coast Guard cutter Itasca, which sat off the coast of Howland to provide Earhart with radio navigation, communication support, and a smoke plume. Earhart reported that they were only 200 miles away—but around 7:42 a.m., she contacted the Itasca again to say they were running low on fuel and couldn’t spot land.

Communication was spotty, and Earhart couldn’t hear most of the Itasca’s replies. The plane radioed the ship several more times—the last time at 8:43 a.m—before losing all contact. Earhart's last, garbled message is thought to have said, "We are on the line 157-337... We are running on line north and south."

Today, many parties—including the U.S. government and experts at the Smithsonian Institution’s Air & Space Museum—say that the plane likely ran out of gas and plunged into the ocean, killing both Earhart and Noonan.

Earhart and Noonan were officially declared lost at sea on July 19, 1937, following a widespread sea and air search involving 4000 crewmen, nine vessels, and 66 aircraft. In recent years, Nauticos—a company in Hanover, Maryland that performs deep-ocean searches—has looked for Earhart's plane, but their efforts have yielded no findings.


In his 2016 book Amelia Earhart: Beyond the Grave, author W.C. Jameson builds on one theory that Earhart wasn’t simply a pilot: She was also a spy, hired by President Franklin D. Roosevelt to monitor Japanese military installations on the Marshall Islands.

According to Jameson, Earhart’s plane was outfitted with cameras. However, the pilot’s surveillance mission didn’t go as planned: She was shot down by the Japanese, or captured in the Marshall Islands after she crashed or made a forced landing.

As the story goes, Earhart was reportedly held captive for years, but Roosevelt stayed mum on her whereabouts, not wanting the public to know he had hired the world’s most famous female aviator to monitor the enemy. Meanwhile, officials altered Coast Guard logbooks to say her plane disappeared. (Jameson says he interviewed a former U.S. Army official’s nephew, who said it was known among select, high-ranking parties that Earhart was part of a spy mission.)

According to the theory, Earhart was liberated in 1945, and she returned to the U.S., changed her name to Irene Craigmile Bolam, and lived undercover as a banker in New Jersey. In 1982, Bolam—a.k.a. Earhart—died.

Variations of this theory are posited in several other books, including Amelia Earhart Lives (1970), written by author Joe Klaas with the help of Joseph Gervais, a former Air Force major. Gervais met Bolam while meeting with a group of aviation enthusiasts, and became convinced that she looked just like the missing pilot. After investigating Bolam's life, Gervais claimed in Klass's book that few public records existed to support her accepted identity, and that she was, in fact, Earhart in hiding.

This theory was widely debunked, and Bolam called it a "poorly documented hoax." She filed a $1.5 million lawsuit, and the book's publisher, McGraw-Hill, pulled the book off the market. The case was reportedly settled out of court. As for the so-called "resemblance" between Bolam and Earhart, people who have compared photos of the two (including a criminal forensic expert hired by National Geographic) say they aren't the same person.


Some people say that Japanese forces apprehended Earhart and Noonan—perhaps as spies, or simply as stranded crew members—either on the island of Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands or in the Marshall Islands. They eventually died in captivity.

Several books propose variations of this theory, including Fred Goerner's The Search for Amelia Earhart (1966). Goerner posits that that Earhart and Noonan crash-landed on Mili Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Natives are said to have seen Earhart’s aircraft land, and to have helped the Japanese remove it and ship it to Saipan, nearly 2000 miles away. As for Earhart and Noonan, they were captured alive and sent to Saipan, where they died as prisoners.

In 2009, Wally Earhart, Amelia Earhart’s fourth cousin, corroborated these claims. According to him, his relative succumbed to dysentery, and Noonan was beheaded by the Japanese. (Wally Earhart declined to name his sources, so this premise is hearsay until proven otherwise.)

Recently, Parker Hannafin Corporation, a motion control technologies company, funded search efforts in the Marshall Islands, where search and salvage nonprofit Amelia Research, Inc. had found pieces of metal believed to have come from Earhart’s plane following its crash. The results of the expedition haven't been announced.


Some people believe that Earhart and Noonan, unable to locate Howland Island, searched for another island to land on. The duo ended up making it to Nikumaroro (also known as Gardner Island) in the Pacific republic of Kiribati, which lies some 350 miles southeast of Howland. There, they radioed distress calls for days until their plane was swept away by the tide. Earhart (and presumably Noonan) both died as castaways.

The leading proponents of this theory are the members of a nonprofit group called the International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR). Led by executive director Richard Gillespie, they've spent decades investigating Earhart’s last flight, and have traveled to Nikumaroro Island multiple times since 1989. Their expeditions have uncovered artifacts including leather shoe parts, fragments of a jar that may have been freckle cream (Earhart had freckles), and Plexiglas and aluminum fragments.

Recently, TIGHAR made headlines when they announced that a new analysis of bones discovered on Nikumaroro in either 1939 or 1940 may support their castaway explanation. The 13 bones—including a skull, a humerus, and a radius—were found along with the sole of a woman's shoe, an empty box that may have once held a sextant, and other debris. Long ago, a doctor named D.W. Hoodless determined that they belonged to an elderly man, and over the decades, the partial human skeleton was discarded. But in 1998, TIGHAR re-examined the bones’ recorded measurements, and claimed that Hoodless was wrong: They actually belonged to a woman with the same stature and ethnicity as Earhart.

In the latest round of speculation, a forensic imaging specialist named Jeff Glickman analyzed photos and the original skeleton measurements and noted that the skeleton’s forearms were particularly long, just like the missing pilot’s. However, many experts have dismissed these new conclusions, saying they—along with TIGHAR's other theories—aren't strong enough to confirm Earhart's fate.

Dorothy Cochrane, a curator at Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum, even told Smithsonian magazine that "Gillespie's theory is based on conjecture and circumstance. He repeatedly ignores facts such as the found sole of a woman’s shoe being the wrong size for Earhart—a fact stated by her sister." Even the identification of the skeleton as female is in doubt. In 2015, a different set of researchers noted flaws in the 1998 paper and came to the conclusion that the original male classification was more likely.


In 1945, a group of Australian World War II soldiers on the island of New Britain, in Papua New Guinea, reportedly discovered civilian aircraft wreckage in the jungle [PDF]. A reconnaissance patrol map from that mission names the plane’s construction number—C/N 1055—which matches the one on Earhart’s own aircraft. Its engines also resembled the ones on Earhart's Lockheed Electra.

David Billings, an Australian aircraft engineer who lives in Papua New Guinea, reportedly owns video testimonies of the discoverers, and to this day, a patrol member’s widow safeguards the map. That being said, Earhart was supposed to land on Howland—not New Britain—so Billings theorizes that she may have turned around while en route to Howland and flown hundreds miles to find another island. However, many people say it’s unlikely, as this theory contradicts Earhart’s final radio messages. Plus, they argue, her plane was too low on fuel to make the journey.

These arguments haven't stopped Billings and other believers from trying to prove their theory: In 2012, they launched a crowdfunding campaign to fund an expedition to search New Britain's jungles for the downed aircraft, but it didn't meet its goal amount.

Additional Sources: Amelia Earhart: Beyond the Grave

Fox Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Why Amelia Earhart Is Remembered as One of History's Most Famous Female Pilots
Fox Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Fox Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty Images

Amelia Earhart was a legend even before she mysteriously disappeared in 1937 while flying around the world. But the aviator's fame wasn't entirely based on skill alone. As Vox explains, Earhart's reputation eclipsed that of several contemporaries who were equally—if not more—talented than “Lady Lindy." So why did Earhart's name go down in history books instead of theirs?

In addition to her talent and courage, Earhart’s international fame could be chalked up to ceaseless self-promotion and a strategic marriage. It all started in 1928, when socialite Amy Phipps Guest and publishing juggernaut George Putnam handpicked the then-amateur pilot to become the first woman to be flown in a plane across the Atlantic Ocean. Earhart wasn't involved with the actual flight process, but the trip still established her as the new female face of aviation (and introduced her to Putnam, her future husband).

After completing the transatlantic journey, Earhart’s profile rose sky-high as she gave public lectures, wrote an aviation column for Cosmopolitan magazine, performed stunts like flying solo across the Atlantic (a feat that was first achieved by Charles Lindbergh in 1927), and endorsed everything from cigarettes to designer luggage. Her celebrity was ultimately cemented with her marriage to Putnam, who orchestrated savvy promotional opportunities to keep his wife’s name in the paper.

Learn more about Earhart’s rise to fame by watching Vox’s video below.

6 Tips From Travel Experts for Packing Winter Clothes

Winter is a great time to snag travel deals, but if you’re going to spend all those extra savings on baggage fees, you’re better off staying home. To get the most out of your winter vacation, pack your clothes efficiently. Not only will you save money at the airport, but you’ll also save time and stress during the packing and unpacking process. We asked some travel experts about the methods they use to maximize their luggage space when heavy winter clothing is involved.


A woman in a winter coat and gloves stands in an airport with her suitcase.

No matter what folding method or fancy equipment you use, your winter coat will always take up more room in your suitcase than a t-shirt. One simple way to save space is to forgo packing it in your bag at all and wear it on the trip. The layering method is an essential strategy for Chris Elliott, travel writer and author of How to Be the World's Smartest Traveler (and Save Time, Money, and Hassle). “This method lets you avoid having to pack your heavy winter jacket, which as you know can easily fill up the entire carry-on,” he tells Mental Floss.

The same trick applies to your boots, gloves, scarves, sweaters, and any other piece of winter gear you can slip on without overheating. And don’t worry, you won’t be dressed for the tundra for the entirety of your journey: As soon as you get into the car or plane, slip off your jacket and use it to get comfy. Kristin Addis, writer of the travel blog Be My Travel Muse, does this when when she’s not storing her jacket in the overhead bin. “Sometimes flights are so cold that it’s really nice to use it as a blanket or extra pillow,” she tells Mental Floss.


A closeup of a suitcase in front of a blue sky with a plane flying by.

Winter puts your luggage to the test. A well-made bag should be able to fit a last-minute pair of socks when it’s already full to the brim, while an old, cheap model will be stretching at the seams long before that. Elliott recommends that travelers prioritize quality over bells and whistles. “You might have a really awesome bag that’s self-weighing and it’s got a charger in it,” he says, “but if it doesn’t hold up to the rigors of travel, you should leave it at home.” For a bag that delivers both fancy features and durability, Elliott recommends Blue Smart.


A woman sitting on an overstuffed suitcase.

Stuffing in that one extra sweater can be the undoing of many winter travelers. Instead of focusing on bulky outerwear, Addis prefers to pack light base layers that will keep her toasty without pushing her luggage past the weight limit. “I try to bring things that are inherently warm and lightweight like merino wool ski underwear and a very warm down jacket,” she tells Mental Floss. “Even with just those two layers I am good in -20°C as long as it is a dry cold.” If you have base layers packed for every day of your trip, there’s no reason to bring more than one or two sweaters. No one will fault you for wearing the same outfit twice. Elliott also prefers to pack base layers from quality brands like North Face over the flashier items he has in his closet. “If you’re going somewhere really cold, unless you're going to Aspen, you don’t really need to make a fashion statement,” he says. “You don’t need to pack your entire wardrobe.”


A closeup of a person's hands packing rolled clothes into a suitcase.

To roll or to fold? That is the question that plagues many travelers when they first set out to fill a suitcase. You may suspect that it doesn’t make much of a difference either way, but to both Elliott and Addis the answer is clear: Rolling is the way to go. For lighter undershirts, employ the fold-and-roll method used by the Navy. Lay the shirt flat on your bed or some other surface and fold the bottom third of the shirt to its back side. Next fold it vertically, laying the right half of the shirt over the left half. Finally, fold the left third of the shirt into the middle and then fold the remaining right third over that. Compress it even tighter by rolling the whole thing up starting from the collar. For sweaters, you can get away with a few less folds. Lay the garment flat and fold the arms behind the back to make an “X”. Fold it in two vertically—now you’re ready to start rolling it tight from top to bottom. If you’re worried about your perfectly bundled packages unraveling, secure them with a rubber band to give yourself peace of mind. Having a hard time visualizing how it's done? Check out this video.


A set of three Eagle Creek packing cubes.

To pack like a pro, get your hands on a set of luggage cubes. After testing them out, Elliott says he’ll never go back. “I always thought luggage cubes were gimmicky and then I tried them,” he says, “They are not gimmicky at all. Two luggage cubes can save you a ton of space.” Elliot's favorite cubes are from Eagle Creek. The mesh, zippered containers are basically mini suitcases: Fold and roll your clothes like you normally would then squeeze them into the cubes until they're full. The packed cubes fit like puzzle pieces into your bag, helping to maximize space. Addis is also a fan. “My big secret is packing cubes!” she says. “I roll and stuff each item into them, zip it up, and then it is organized and more compact.”


A woman weighing a suitcase on a scale.

One extra pound can make the difference between paying an extra $50 at the airport and walking on the flight with that money in your pocket. Traveling with heavy winter gear means your bag is more likely to tip past the 50-pound limit. Avoid getting blind-sided at security by weighing your bag before you leave the house (a digital luggage scale is perfect for this). Pack the bare minimum amount of supplies you need before your first weight check. If you have a few pounds to spare and some room left in the bag, reward yourself by chucking in your favorite scarf or sweater you planned to leave behind.


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