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Fact-Checking a 1947 British Weather Report

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YouTube

In June of 1947, British Pathé visited brothers John and Dennis Bartlett, professional weather predictors who claimed to be "80 percent accurate" and to have known all about the famously cold winter of 1947. Here, they are enlisted to find Britain's "proverbial one-week summer."

There's something decidingly un-British about their cockiness, but mamma Bartlett didn't raise any fools.

Or did she?

You talk a big game, Bartlett brothers—but can you back it up? You're about to get fact-checked, 67 years into the future.

Bet you didn't see this coming, chaps.

July:

Bartlett Brothers Prediction: "The first week of July, thunderstorms. The middle two weeks, fine and sunny. Two thunderstorms. And the last week will be bright and fairly decent again."

Actual Weather: "July 1947—A rather warm month, with a cool spell 5th-11th; frequent, and at times severe, thunderstorms...Thunderstorms occurred rather frequently, mainly on the 1st, 8th-9th, 11th, 14th-19th, 22nd-23rd and 28th-29th. Those on the 15th-16th and 28th were widespread and severe locally." (Monthly Weather Report of the Meteorological Office)

Those middle two weeks were anything but "fine and sunny," Bartlett bros. You blew it. I'm sure there are some sopping wet holiday-goers on Brighton Beach who'd like to have a word with you (assuming they are still alive, which is unlikely).

August:

Bartlett Brothers Prediction: "Well, it's going to be very very disappointing. Heavy downpours of rain. Thunderstorms. It's going to be typical for this month. I don't think it's going to be a very good month at all, August. Very disappointing. That's the best way to sum it up."

Actual Weather: "August 1947—An exceptionally hot, dry and sunny month....In England and Wales it was the driest August on record." (Monthly Weather Report of the Meteorological Office)

"The month was unprecedented (for fine weather) for over 75 years over practically the whole of the British Isles — only surpassed by August 1995." ('Weather,' February 2013)

It's easy to sit in a sunny meadow and draw ovals on maps for the camera, Bartlett bros., but when the storm of truth comes rolling in, it rains all over your parade. Doubt you brought an umbrella. Sorry to steal your thunder. When it rains it pours, huh? Maybe you should've kept your heads out of the clouds. And so on and so forth.

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iStock // Ekaterina Minaeva
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Man Buys Two Metric Tons of LEGO Bricks; Sorts Them Via Machine Learning
May 21, 2017
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iStock // Ekaterina Minaeva

Jacques Mattheij made a small, but awesome, mistake. He went on eBay one evening and bid on a bunch of bulk LEGO brick auctions, then went to sleep. Upon waking, he discovered that he was the high bidder on many, and was now the proud owner of two tons of LEGO bricks. (This is about 4400 pounds.) He wrote, "[L]esson 1: if you win almost all bids you are bidding too high."

Mattheij had noticed that bulk, unsorted bricks sell for something like €10/kilogram, whereas sets are roughly €40/kg and rare parts go for up to €100/kg. Much of the value of the bricks is in their sorting. If he could reduce the entropy of these bins of unsorted bricks, he could make a tidy profit. While many people do this work by hand, the problem is enormous—just the kind of challenge for a computer. Mattheij writes:

There are 38000+ shapes and there are 100+ possible shades of color (you can roughly tell how old someone is by asking them what lego colors they remember from their youth).

In the following months, Mattheij built a proof-of-concept sorting system using, of course, LEGO. He broke the problem down into a series of sub-problems (including "feeding LEGO reliably from a hopper is surprisingly hard," one of those facts of nature that will stymie even the best system design). After tinkering with the prototype at length, he expanded the system to a surprisingly complex system of conveyer belts (powered by a home treadmill), various pieces of cabinetry, and "copious quantities of crazy glue."

Here's a video showing the current system running at low speed:

The key part of the system was running the bricks past a camera paired with a computer running a neural net-based image classifier. That allows the computer (when sufficiently trained on brick images) to recognize bricks and thus categorize them by color, shape, or other parameters. Remember that as bricks pass by, they can be in any orientation, can be dirty, can even be stuck to other pieces. So having a flexible software system is key to recognizing—in a fraction of a second—what a given brick is, in order to sort it out. When a match is found, a jet of compressed air pops the piece off the conveyer belt and into a waiting bin.

After much experimentation, Mattheij rewrote the software (several times in fact) to accomplish a variety of basic tasks. At its core, the system takes images from a webcam and feeds them to a neural network to do the classification. Of course, the neural net needs to be "trained" by showing it lots of images, and telling it what those images represent. Mattheij's breakthrough was allowing the machine to effectively train itself, with guidance: Running pieces through allows the system to take its own photos, make a guess, and build on that guess. As long as Mattheij corrects the incorrect guesses, he ends up with a decent (and self-reinforcing) corpus of training data. As the machine continues running, it can rack up more training, allowing it to recognize a broad variety of pieces on the fly.

Here's another video, focusing on how the pieces move on conveyer belts (running at slow speed so puny humans can follow). You can also see the air jets in action:

In an email interview, Mattheij told Mental Floss that the system currently sorts LEGO bricks into more than 50 categories. It can also be run in a color-sorting mode to bin the parts across 12 color groups. (Thus at present you'd likely do a two-pass sort on the bricks: once for shape, then a separate pass for color.) He continues to refine the system, with a focus on making its recognition abilities faster. At some point down the line, he plans to make the software portion open source. You're on your own as far as building conveyer belts, bins, and so forth.

Check out Mattheij's writeup in two parts for more information. It starts with an overview of the story, followed up with a deep dive on the software. He's also tweeting about the project (among other things). And if you look around a bit, you'll find bulk LEGO brick auctions online—it's definitely a thing!

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Nick Briggs/Comic Relief
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What Happened to Jamie and Aurelia From Love Actually?
May 26, 2017
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Nick Briggs/Comic Relief

Fans of the romantic-comedy Love Actually recently got a bonus reunion in the form of Red Nose Day Actually, a short charity special that gave audiences a peek at where their favorite characters ended up almost 15 years later.

One of the most improbable pairings from the original film was between Jamie (Colin Firth) and Aurelia (Lúcia Moniz), who fell in love despite almost no shared vocabulary. Jamie is English, and Aurelia is Portuguese, and they know just enough of each other’s native tongues for Jamie to propose and Aurelia to accept.

A decade and a half on, they have both improved their knowledge of each other’s languages—if not perfectly, in Jamie’s case. But apparently, their love is much stronger than his grasp on Portuguese grammar, because they’ve got three bilingual kids and another on the way. (And still enjoy having important romantic moments in the car.)

In 2015, Love Actually script editor Emma Freud revealed via Twitter what happened between Karen and Harry (Emma Thompson and Alan Rickman, who passed away last year). Most of the other couples get happy endings in the short—even if Hugh Grant's character hasn't gotten any better at dancing.

[h/t TV Guide]

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