Your Storm Forecast Is Going to Get More Precise

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Just about every alert you hear before a storm creeps up on the horizon was issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). We use this federal agency's services almost every day without thinking about it. Daily forecasts, storm alerts, weather radars, and satellite images are all produced by thousands of meteorologists who work day and night to keep us safe. One part of keeping us safe is making sure we understand what they're trying to tell us. After all, what good is a warning if you don't know exactly what they're trying to say? The NWS is working to simplify the warning process to give us better information and help us make better decisions to stay safe during hazardous weather.

Right now, the NWS issues dozens of different alerts that cover all sorts of dangerous conditions. These alerts are called watches, advisories, and warnings, with each respective category carrying a greater sense of urgency. There are alerts for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods, hurricanes, winter storms, and even conditions like dense fog or blowing dust.

The sheer number of alerts can be daunting, not to mention the sometimes-convoluted language forecasters use to tell us what's going on. It's easy to miss the distinction between a tornado watch and a tornado warning, for example. The Hazards Simplification Project is an ongoing effort within the National Weather Service to whittle down the number of alerts and use clearer language to give us a leg-up on dangerous weather conditions.

The first couple of changes will go into effect later in 2017. The NWS currently issues 10 different alerts for winter weather events such as blizzards, ice storms, lake effect snow, and snowstorms. In the winter, the agency will reduce the number of alerts to just six. They're getting rid of the blizzard watch, for example, merging it with the winter storm watch. Winter weather alerts will also be issued in a “what/where/when” format, outlining exactly how much snow or ice you can expect, where it's expected, and when it's expected to happen. Previously, you had to scour a few paragraphs of text to figure out what was coming your way.

The NWS will also look into changing their weather maps to display just four different colors when weather alerts are in effect—a dramatic change from the hodgepodge of colors that smear weather maps today. Each weather alert currently has its own unique color on weather maps, so these maps are almost indecipherable when there's a lot of active weather across the country. The agency may soon replace all of these colors with just four hues—yellow, orange, red, and purple—to convey the severity and urgency of the alert in effect.

improved hazardous weather map from the NOAA
A swath showing the probability of a tornado near Birmingham, Alabama, under the new FACETs project. The old tornado warning polygon is outlined in red.
NOAA/NSSL

There are also some big changes in the works for warnings in the future. Meteorologists used to issue tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for entire counties, which didn't work out too well as some counties in the United States are enormous compared to the size of a single thunderstorm. About a decade ago, they reduced these warnings to polygons that covered just the area expected to be impacted by the storm. This greatly reduced false alarms and helped warn only the people who needed to take shelter.

In the next couple of years, the NWS will roll out a project called Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs). This project will reduce those old warning polygons even further into a swath that shows the probability that a certain area will be affected by a tornado, large hail, or damaging winds. The resulting warning area, seen above, looks similar to the cone of uncertainty forecasters use ahead of hurricanes and covers a much smaller area than the old polygons. This will allow forecasters to warn only those directly affected by the approaching hazards, reducing false-alarm rates even further and giving people greater confidence that they should take action right away instead of waiting it out.

What is a Polar Vortex?

Edward Stojakovic, Flickr // CC BY 2.0
Edward Stojakovic, Flickr // CC BY 2.0

If you’ve turned on the news or stepped outside lately, you're familiar with the record-breaking cold that is blanketing a lot of North America. According to The Washington Post, a mass of bone-chilling air over Canada—a polar vortex—split into three parts at the beginning of 2019, and one is making its way to the eastern U.S. Polar vortexes can push frigid air straight from the arctic tundra into more temperate regions. But just what is this weather phenomenon?

How does a polar vortex form?

Polar vortexes are basically arctic hurricanes or cyclones. NASA defines them as “a whirling and persistent large area of low pressure, found typically over both North and South poles.” A winter phenomenon, vortexes develop as the sun sets over the pole and temperatures cool, and occur in the middle and upper troposphere and the stratosphere (roughly, between six and 31 miles above the Earth’s surface).

Where will a polar vortex hit?

In the Northern Hemisphere, the vortexes move in a counterclockwise direction. Typically, they dip down over Canada, but according to NBC News, polar vortexes can move into the contiguous U.S. due to warm weather over Greenland or Alaska—which forces denser cold air south—or other weather patterns.

Polar vortexes aren't rare—in fact, arctic winds do sometimes dip down into the eastern U.S.—but sometimes the sheer size of the area affected is much greater than normal.

How cold is a polar vortex?

So cold that frozen sharks have been known to wash up on Cape Cod beaches. So cold that animal keepers at the Calgary Zoo in Alberta, Canada once decided to bring its group of king penguins indoors for warmth (the species lives on islands north of Antarctica and the birds aren't used to extreme cold.) Even parts of Alabama and other regions in the Deep South have seen single-digit temperatures and wind chills below zero.

But thankfully, this type of arctic freeze doesn't stick around forever: Temperatures will gradually warm up.

A Simple Trick for Defrosting Your Windshield in Less Than 60 Seconds

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iStock

As beautiful as a winter snowfall can be, the white stuff is certainly not without its irritations—especially if you have to get into your car and go somewhere. As if shoveling a path to the driver’s door wasn’t enough, then you’ve got a frozen windshield with which to contend. Everyone has his or her own tricks for warming up a car in record time—including appropriately-named meteorologist Ken Weathers, who works at WATE in Knoxville, Tennessee.

A while back, Weathers shared a homemade trick for defrosting your windshield in less than 60 seconds: spray the glass with a simple solution of one part water and two parts rubbing alcohol. “The reason why this works,” according to Weathers, “is [that] rubbing alcohol has a freezing point of 128 degrees below freezing.”

Watch the spray in action below.

[h/t: Travel + Leisure]

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