Tornado Casualties Could Triple by the End of the Century

A recent study published in the journal Climatic Change found that the amount of death and destruction wrought by tornadoes in the United States could triple by the end of this century—and it’s in large part our own doing. Researchers at Villanova University studying tornado risk and population growth found that human activity will likely contribute to a rise in tornado-related damages and casualties in the coming decades.

The researchers’ findings are almost common sense: As the American population grows and people build homes farther away from urban centers, tornadoes will have more things to run into, putting more people at greater risk for danger during tornado outbreaks.

It’s already possible to see the effects of population growth in the aftermath of recent tornado outbreaks. Most tornadoes tear through open land, primarily damaging farm houses and agricultural equipment. Back when most of the population was either isolated in rural areas or concentrated in city centers, it took the incredible bad luck of a significant tornado directly hitting a city in order to cause a major disaster. But as the suburbs have wildly expanded in recent decades and we've built on more and more land, we’re exposing ourselves to a risk that our parents and grandparents didn’t necessarily have to face. Nowadays, a tornado can tear through a city’s suburbs and claim many lives and thousands of homes—homes that likely didn’t exist 50 years ago.

The researchers also accounted for the fact that the frequency of tornadoes might increase over the next nine decades, but found that this increase alone doesn’t account for additional tornado-related tragedies. Talking about future tornadoes, of course, also inevitably brings up the issue of climate change. While there is significant scientific consensus on many of the effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels and warmer temperatures, scientists still aren’t sure how climate change would affect the frequency or intensity of tornadoes in the future.

Tornadoes require wind shear in order to form. Winds changing speed and direction with height is what causes a thunderstorm’s updraft to begin rotating, which in turn can produce tornadoes. While a warmer atmosphere would foster more intense thunderstorm activity, a uniformly warm atmosphere would probably lessen the amount of wind shear that a thunderstorm could tap into—possibly causing the number of annual tornadoes to hold steady or even drop a bit.

But while climate change’s future effects on tornadoes remain to be seen, researchers have recently noted an uptick in the frequency of tornado outbreaks, or events with many tornadoes on a single day. All of which is to say: An increase in tornado outbreaks combined with an increase in population will likely make tornado tragedies more common in the future.

What Is a Bomb Cyclone?

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The phrase bomb cyclone has re-entered the news this week as parts of the central U.S. face severe weather. Mountain and Midwestern states, including Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota, all fall in the path of a winter storm expected to deliver tornadoes, hail, heavy snow, flooding, and hurricane-force winds on Wednesday, March 13 into Thursday. It seems appropriate for a storm that strong to have bomb in its name, but the word actually refers to a meteorological phenomenon and not the cyclone's explosive intensity.

According to The Denver Post, the bomb in bomb cyclone stands for bombogenesis. Bombogenesis occurs when a non-tropical storm experiences at least a 24 millibar (the unit used to measure barometric pressure) drop within 24 hours. Low pressure makes for intense storms, so a bomb cyclone is a system that's built up a significant amount strength in a short length of time.

This type of storm usually depends on the ocean or another large body of water for its power. During the winter, the relatively warm air coming off the ocean and the cold air above land can collide to create a sharp drop in atmospheric pressure. Also known as a winter hurricane, this effect has produced some of the worst snowstorms to ever hit the U.S.

The fact that this latest bomb cyclone has formed nowhere near the coast makes it even more remarkable. Rather, a warm, subtropical air mass and a cold, Arctic air mass crossed paths, creating the perfect conditions for a rare bombogenesis over the Rockies and Great Plains states.

Central U.S. residents in the bomb cyclone's path have taken great precautions ahead of the storm. Over 1000 flights have been canceled for Wednesday and schools throughout Colorado have closed.

[h/t The Denver Post]

Watch a Rare ‘Ice Tsunami’ Slam Lake Erie

Clean Lakes Alliance, Flickr // CC BY 2.0
Clean Lakes Alliance, Flickr // CC BY 2.0

A combination of freezing cold temperatures and high winds is creating an unusual phenomenon along Lake Erie. As KDKA reports, ice tsunamis are toppling onto lake shores, and many locals have been asked to stay inside and even evacuate their homes.

On February 24, 2019, the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York issued a warning about dangerous wind gusts in the Lake Erie area. The service urged citizens to seek shelter indoors and avoid traveling if possible. Winds peaked at 74 mph earlier this week, the level of a Category 1 hurricane, and tore down trees and power lines throughout the region.

People who got close to Lake Erie during the windstorm witnessed a rare event known as an ice tsunami. When wind pushed ice on the lake's surface toward the retaining wall, the sheet broke apart and dumped massive ice chunks on the shore. The video below captures the phenomenon.

In some areas, the ice piles grew so large that roadways had to be closed. Residents of Hamburg, New York's Hoover Beach area were asked to voluntarily evacuate due to the encroaching ice.

Ice tsunamis, or ice shoves, are rare, but in some cases they can be life-threatening. In 2013, waves of ice shards from a Minnesota lake destroyed people's homes.

[h/t KDKA]

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