CLOSE

My Trip to MIT's Sports Nerd Conference

[Image credit: John Marcus.]

On Saturday, I had the pleasure of attending the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference—or the Sports Nerd Conference, as my girlfriend referred to it—at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center. In its fourth year, the conference brought some of the sports industry's most innovative thinkers together for a forum on the expanding role of analytics in projecting player performance and informing in-game decision making.

The conference wasn't only for stat heads, however; it also featured panel discussions on such topics as international expansion, social media marketing, and the future of sports journalism. As a former psychology major who has only recently delved into the world of advanced analytics as they relate to sports (and only then in an attempt to gain an advantage in my fantasy drafts), this was refreshing. Here's a brief, stats-light summary of three of the three analytics-related panel discussions I observed.

Baseball Analytics

ESPN.com baseball writer Rob Neyer moderated a group that included three current front office executives (St. Louis Cardinals assistant general manager John Abbamondi, Arizona Diamondbacks director of baseball operations Shiraz Rehman, and Boston Red Sox advisor Tom Tippett), as well as former Red Sox general manager Dan Duqette, and John Dewan, who founded Baseball Info Solutions in 2002 after a career as an insurance actuary.

MIT-Sloan5

[Image credit: John Marcus.]

Neyer opened the discussion by referencing a phenomenon described by Wellesley political scientist Craig Murphy in a recent New Yorker profile on Paul Krugman. Murphy noted that sixteenth century maps of Africa were misleading, but they included pertinent information about the continent's interior, including the location of major rivers. As mapmaking became more accurate and cartographical standards for what information was included on a map rose, secondhand travelers' reports were discarded and lost. As a result, the maps included less information than before. By the nineteenth century, the maps were filled in again, but for a period the sharpening of technique caused loss as well as gain. Neyer used the example to illustrate the challenge facing today's baseball executives, who have more statistical information at their fingertips than ever before, but continue to struggle to make sense of it and use it effectively.

"There are so many teams that we meet with that don't understand how to use the data that's out there," said Dewan, who consults with several MLB clubs. Abbamondi indicated that knowing what stats not to look at it in terms of predictive value is just as important as knowing what stats are useful. That goes for information used by the front office to make personnel decisions and information that is passed on to players with the intent of giving them an edge. With a little research, anyone can discover what Albert Pujols' batting average is on Tuesdays with a 3-1 count on natural grass against a pitcher whose last name starts with the letter B. That may be interesting information to know—or not—but it probably won't affect how Pujols or Joe Blanton approach their next encounter on a Tuesday at Busch Stadium. "The last thing you want is the hitter's mind cluttered," Abbamondi said.

The panelists discussed defensive analytics at length, including the concept of catcher defense, which attempts to quantify a catcher's ability to block pitches and manage a game. Catcher defense helps explain why Jason Varitek, who is a poor fantasy option, is an underappreciated contributor to the success of the Red Sox. "Defensive evaluation is taking its proper place in overall player analysis," said Tippett, who provides analytical support for Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein.

Neyer asked the panelists what they would like to know about baseball that they don't already know. "How to make sure the Yankees never win another World Series," Tippett said, eliciting cheers from the Red Sox fans in the room. Duquette wanted to know how to produce 20-game winners. Rehman echoed something Abbamondi mentioned earlier in the discussion about finding an accurate way to measure a player's makeup or personality. To a scout, Abbamondi said, good makeup is often synonymous with politeness. If a player says "yes, sir" and "no, sir," the scout is more likely to report that the player has good makeup, even if this tells the front office nothing about that player's work ethic, desire, and motivation. As they continue to look for ways to identify the next superstar, teams are focused on finding predictive psychological measures for young players.

Emerging Analytics

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick's controversial decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2:08 remaining and his team nursing a six-point lead against the undefeated Colts last November was a hot topic on at least two panels, including this one, which was moderated by Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Kate Fagan.

Kevin Faulk was stopped short of the first-down marker after catching a pass in the flat from Tom Brady, allowing the Colts to take over on downs. Peyton Manning led his team to a game-winning touchdown and Belichick was criticized afterward. Aaron Schatz, a Brown graduate who wrote the Internet column "The Lycos 50" before working as a disc jockey and founding FootballOutsiders.com, a site that uses innovative statistics to analyze football, defended Belichick's call.

MIT-Sloan2

[Image credit: John Marcus.]

"Statistically, it was the right decision," said Schatz (pictured), who admitted he is a Patriots fans. While the statistical models used to come to that conclusion are not perfect, Schatz made the case that the decision was not stupid. But that's exactly how many media members reacted. As Schatz pointed out, broadcasters referred to subsequent decisions by NFL head coaches that they perceived as boneheaded as "Belichickian" for the remainder of the season.

Schatz and San Francisco 49ers Executive VP of Football and Business Operations Paraag Marathe had some interesting things to say about the NFL scouting combine. Marathe compared evaluating rookie football players by having them "play track and field" at the scouting combine to evaluating rookie baseball players by having them play ping-pong. Marathe and Schatz both emphasized the importance of evaluating players in the context of the scheme that they play in and the abilities of the players around them. Football analytics has lagged behind baseball analytics, they said, in part because it is inherently more difficult to evaluate one player's ability without accounting for what the 10 other players on his team did on a given play. If a running back breaks a 25-yard run, for instance, was it because he made a great cut, his fullback made a great block, or his offensive line cleared a huge hole? Perhaps it was for all three reasons.

Like the baseball executives who spoke before him, Marathe discussed the growing emphasis being placed on measuring players' personality traits. Marathe and Schatz said a poor score on the infamous Wonderlic test administered to prospects at the NFL's scouting combine might raise a red flag for teams—if only because it could indicate that the player doesn't take his draft prospects serious enough to find someone to help him prepare for the test—but that psychological traits related to dedication, motivation, and self-efficacy are more predictive of future success.

What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball

Michael Lewis, who wrote Moneyball and The Blind Side, moderated the feature panel, which featured ESPN.com columnist Bill Simmons, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian, and New England Patriots president Jonathan Kraft. After Lewis introduced the panel, Simmons congratulated the audience of more than 1,000 on breaking the "Most Dudes in a Conference Room" record. He was only partly kidding.

MIT-Sloan3

[Image credit: John Marcus.]

The goal of the panel was to unmask some of the inefficiencies of sports analytics and identify how numbers don't always tell the whole story in sports. Simmons proceeded to explain that the onus should fall on the people dispersing all of this new statistical information to explain it in a way that the casual fan can understand. Polian, who has been to four Super Bowls as an executive with the Bills and Colts, said that geekdom provides wonderful tools for teams to find the next undervalued player, but requested that stat heads "speak English, please."

Belichick's decision came up again, with Polian, Kraft, and Simmons, who wrote a column criticizing the move, engaging in a fascinating back-and-forth. Kraft said he was convinced it was two-down territory for the Patriots on third down and Polian indicated that he did, too, "without question." The Patriots were beat up defensively and the Colts had moved the ball at will in the second half, their thinking went. If Indianapolis got the ball back, they were going to score. Simmons said he thought the decision to go for it made sense, but that the events preceding the decision—calling a timeout after throwing an incompletion on third down—and the fourth-down play call didn't come from a position of strength. "It seemed panicky to me," Simmons said. "That's my opinion." "I disagree," Kraft said bluntly (pictured below, on left, with Polian and Simmons).

MIT-Kraft-Polian-Simmons

[Image credit: John Marcus.]

The discussion turned to basketball and it was no surprise that when asked to name the biggest inefficiencies in basketball, Cuban mentioned referees. Cuban and Morey stressed the importance of finding players with the right psychological makeup to complement their skills on the court, but they had differing opinions on the value of a player who the stats indicate performs well in the clutch. Cuban said that part of the reason the Mavericks traded for Jason Kidd was that, statistically, he performs better in clutch situations than at other points in the game. Morey expressed concern about the sample size for measuring a player's "clutchness," and said he didn't factor clutch statistics into his personnel decisions.

Toward the end of the session, Polian raised an important question: Once you identify a tendency using analytics, can you make it better? If you have the answer to that, or you have developed a personality test that can predict athletic success, there's a job in professional sports waiting for you.

nextArticle.image_alt|e
iStock
arrow
Animals
15 Incredible Facts About Pigeons
iStock
iStock

Though they're often described as "rats with wings" (a phrase popularized by the movie Stardust Memories), pigeons are actually pretty cool. From homing instincts to misleading rump feathers, here are 15 things you might not know about these avian adventurers.

1. THEY MIGHT BE THE FIRST DOMESTICATED BIRD.

The common city pigeon (Columba livia), also known as the rock pigeon, might be the first bird humankind ever domesticated. You can see them in art dating back as far as 4500 BCE in modern Iraq, and they've been a valuable source of food for thousands of years.

2. THEY WON OVER CHARLES DARWIN—AND NIKOLA TESLA.

Pigeon-breeding was a common hobby in Victorian England for everyone from well-off businessmen to average Joes, leading to some fantastically weird birds. Few hobbyists had more enthusiasm for the breeding process than Charles Darwin, who owned a diverse flock, joined London pigeon clubs, and hobnobbed with famous breeders. Darwin's passion for the birds influenced his 1868 book The Variation of Animals and Plants Under Domestication, which has not one but two chapters about pigeons (dogs and cats share a single chapter).

Nikola Tesla was another great mind who enjoyed pigeons. He used to care for injured wild pigeons in his New York City hotel room. Hands down, Tesla's favorite was a white female—about whom he once said, "I loved that pigeon, I loved her as a man loves a woman and she loved me. When she was ill, I knew and understood; she came to my room and I stayed beside her for days. I nursed her back to health. That pigeon was the joy of my life. If she needed me, nothing else mattered. As long as I had her, there was a purpose in my life." Reportedly, he was inconsolable after she died.

3. THEY UNDERSTAND SPACE AND TIME.

In a 2017 Current Biology study, researchers showed captive pigeons a series of digital lines on a computer screen for either two or eight seconds. Some lines were short, measuring about 2.3 inches across; others were four times longer. The pigeons were trained to evaluate either the length of the line or how long it was displayed. They found that the more time a line was displayed, the longer in length the pigeon judged it to be. The reverse was true too: If the pigeons encountered a longer line, they thought it existed in time for a greater duration. Pigeons, the scientists concluded, understand the concepts of both time and space; the researchers noted "similar results have been found with humans and other primates."

It's thought that humans process those concepts with a brain region called the parietal cortex; pigeon brains lack that cortex, so they must have a different way of judging space and time.

4. THEY CAN FIND THEIR WAY BACK TO THE NEST FROM 1300 MILES AWAY.

A pigeon flying in front of trees.
iStock

The birds can do this even if they've been transported in isolation—with no visual, olfactory, or magnetic clues—while scientists rotate their cages so they don't know what direction they're traveling in. How they do this is a mystery, but people have been exploiting the pigeon's navigational skills since at least 3000 BCE, when ancient peoples would set caged pigeons free and follow them to nearby land.

Their navigational skills also make pigeons great long-distance messengers. Sports fans in ancient Greece are said to have used trained pigeons to carry the results of the Ancient Olympics. Further east, Genghis Khan stayed in touch with his allies and enemies alike through a pigeon-based postal network.

5. THEY SAVED THOUSANDS OF HUMAN LIVES DURING WORLD WARS I AND II.

Pigeons' homing talents continued to shape history during the 20th century. In both World Wars, rival nations had huge flocks of pigeon messengers. (America alone had 200,000 at its disposal in WWII.) By delivering critical updates, the avians saved thousands of human lives. One racing bird named Cher Ami completed a mission that led to the rescue of 194 stranded U.S. soldiers on October 4, 1918.

6. TWO PIGEONS ALMOST DISTRACTED FROM THE DISCOVERY OF EVIDENCE OF THE BIG BANG.

In 1964, scientists in Holmdel, New Jersey, heard hissing noises from their antenna that would later prove to be signals from the Big Bang. But when they first heard the sound, they thought it might be, among other things, the poop of two pigeons that were living in the antenna. "We took the pigeons, put them in a box, and mailed them as far away as we could in the company mail to a guy who fancied pigeons," one of the scientists later recalled. "He looked at them and said these are junk pigeons and let them go and before long they were right back." But the scientists were able to clean out the antenna and determine that they had not been the cause of the noise. The trap used to catch the birds (before they had to later be, uh, permanently removed) is on view at the Smithsonian Air & Space Museum.

7. YOU CAN TRAIN THEM TO BE ART SNOBS …

Japanese psychologist Shigeru Watanabe and two colleagues earned an Ig Nobel Prize in 1995 for training pigeons, in a lab setting, to recognize the paintings of Claude Monet and Pablo Picasso and to distinguish between the painters. The pigeons were even able to use their knowledge of impressionism and cubism to identify paintings of other artists in those movements. Later, Watanabe taught other pigeons to distinguish watercolor images from pastels. And in a 2009 experiment, captive pigeons he'd borrowed were shown almost two dozen paintings made by students at a Tokyo elementary school, and were taught which ones were considered "good" and which ones were considered "bad." He then presented them with 10 new paintings and the avian critics managed to correctly guess which ones had earned bad grades from the school's teacher and a panel of adults. Watanabe's findings indicate that wild pigeons naturally categorize things on the basis of color, texture, and general appearance.

8. … AND TO DISTINGUISH WRITTEN WORDS.

In a 2016 study, scientists showed that pigeons can differentiate between strings of letters and actual words. Four of the birds built up a vocabulary of between 26 and 58 written English words, and though the birds couldn't actually read them, they could identify visual patterns and therefore tell them apart. The birds could even identify words they hadn't seen before.

9. FLUFFY PIGEON FEET MIGHT ACTUALLY BE PARTIAL WINGS.

A white pigeon with curly feathers and fluffy feet.
iStock

A few pigeon breeds have fuzzy legs—which hobbyists call "muffs"—rather than scaly ones. According to a 2016 study, the DNA of these fluffy-footed pigeons leads their hind legs to take on some forelimb characteristics, making muffed pigeon legs look distinctly wing-like; they're also big-boned. Not only do they have feathers, but the hindlimbs are somewhat big-boned, too. According to biologist Mike Shapiro, who led the study, "pigeons' fancy feathered feet are partially wings."

10. SOME PIGEONS DISTRACT FALCONS WITH WHITE RUMP FEATHERS.

In a life-or-death situation, a pigeon's survival could depend upon its color pattern: Research has shown that wild falcons rarely go after pigeons that have a white patch of feathers just above the tail, and when the predators do target these birds, the attacks are rarely successful.

To figure out why this is, Ph.D. student Alberto Palleroni and a team tagged 5235 pigeons in the vicinity of Davis, California. Then, they monitored 1485 falcon-on-pigeon attacks over a seven-year span. The researchers found that although white-rumped pigeons comprised 20 to 25 percent of the area's pigeon population, they represented less than 2 percent of all the observed pigeons that were killed by falcons; the vast majority of the victims had blue rumps. Palleroni and his team rounded up 756 white- and blue-rumped pigeons and swapped their rump feathers by clipping and pasting white feathers on blue rumps, and vice versa. The falcons had a much easier time spotting and catching the newly blue-rumped pigeons, while the pigeons that received the white feathers saw predation rates plummet.

Close observation revealed that the white patches distract birds of prey. In the wild, falcons dive-bomb other winged animals from above at high speeds. Some pigeons respond by rolling away in midair, and on a spiraling bird, white rump feathers can be eye-catching, which means that a patch of them may divert a hungry raptor's focus long enough to make the carnivore miscalculate and zip right past its intended victim.

11. DODOS WERE RELATED TO TODAY'S PIGEONS.

Two blue and green Nicobar pigeons.
iStock

Though most of this list focuses on the rock pigeon, there are 308 living species of pigeons and doves. Together, they make up an order of birds known as the columbiformes. The extinct dodo belonged to this group as well.

Flightless and (somewhat) docile, dodos once inhabited Mauritius, an island near Madagascar. The species had no natural predators, but when human sailors arrived with rats, dogs, cats, and pigs, it began to die out, and before the 17th century came to a close, the dodo had vanished altogether. DNA testing has confirmed that pigeons are closely related to the dodo, and the vibrant Nicobar pigeon (above) is its nearest genetic relative. A multi-colored bird with iridescent feathers, this near-threatened creature is found on small islands in the South Pacific and off Asia. Unlike the dodo, it can fly.

12. AT ONE POINT, MORE THAN ONE-QUARTER OF ALL THE BIRDS LIVING IN THE U.S. MAY HAVE BEEN PASSENGER PIGEONS.

Wild/feral rock pigeons reside in all 50 states, which makes it easy to forget that they're invasive birds. Originally native to Eurasia and northern Africa, the species was (most likely) introduced to North America by French settlers in 1606. At the time, a different kind of columbiform—this one indigenous—was already thriving there: the passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius). As many as 5 billion of them were living in America when England, Spain, and France first started colonizing, and they may have once represented anywhere from 25 to 40 percent of the total U.S. bird population. But by the early 20th century, they had become a rare sight, thanks to overhunting, habitat loss, and a possible genetic diversity issue. The last known passenger pigeon—a captive female named Martha—died on September 1, 1914.

13. THEY'RE REALLY GOOD AT MULTITASKING.

According to one study, they're more efficient multitaskers than people are. Scientists at Ruhr-Universitat Bochum put together a test group of 15 humans and 12 pigeons and trained all of them to complete two simple jobs (like pressing a keyboard once a light bulb came on). They were also put in situations wherein they'd need to stop working on one job and switch over to another. In some trials, the participants had to make the change immediately. During these test runs, humans and pigeons switched between jobs at the same speed.

But in other trials, the test subjects were allowed to complete one assignment and then had to wait 300 milliseconds before moving on to the next job. Interestingly, in these runs, the pigeons were quicker to get started on that second task after the period ended. In the avian brain, nerve cells are more densely packed, which might enable our feathered friends to process information faster than we can under the right circumstances.

14. PIGEONS PRODUCE FAKE "MILK."

Only mammals produce genuine milk, but pigeons and doves (along with some other species of birds) feed their young with something similar—a whitish liquid filled with nutrients, fats, antioxidants, and healthy proteins called "crop milk." Both male and female pigeons create the milk in the crop, a section of the esophagus designed to store food temporarily. As is the case with mammal milk, the creation of crop milk is regulated by the hormone prolactin. Newly-hatched pigeons drink crop milk until they're weaned off it after four weeks or so. (And if you've ever asked yourself, "Where are all the baby pigeons?" we have the answer for you right here.)

15. ONE STUDY SUGGESTS THAT, GIVEN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS, THEY'RE AS GOOD AT IDENTIFYING CANCER AS DOCTORS.

We've already established that pigeons are excellent at differentiating between artists and words, but a 2015 study revealed they can also distinguish between malignant and benign growths in the right conditions. Researchers at University of California Davis Medical Center put 16 pigeons in a room with magnified biopsies of potential breast cancers. If the pigeons correctly identified them as either benign or malignant, they got a treat, According to Scientific American.

"Once trained, the pigeons' average diagnostic accuracy reached an impressive 85 percent. But when a "flock sourcing" approach was taken, in which the most common answer among all subjects was used, group accuracy climbed to a staggering 99 percent, or what would be expected from a pathologist. The pigeons were also able to apply their knowledge to novel images, showing the findings weren't simply a result of rote memorization."

Mammograms proved to be more of a challenge, however; the birds could memorize signs of cancer in the images they were trained on but could not identify the signs in new images.

No matter how impressive their results, "I don't anticipate that pigeons, no matter how good they become at pathology or radiology, will be playing a role in actual patient care—certainly for the foreseeable future," study co-author Richard M. Levenson told Scientific American. "There are just too many regulatory barriers—at least in the West."

nextArticle.image_alt|e
Henson Company
arrow
Pop Culture
Jim Henson's Labyrinth Is Being Adapted Into a Stage Musical
Henson Company
Henson Company

More than 30 years after its cinematic debut, Labyrinth could be hitting the stage. In an interview with Forbes, Jim Henson's son and Henson Company CEO Brian Henson shared plans to transform the cult classic into a live musical.

While the new musical would be missing David Bowie in his starring role as Jareth the Goblin King, it would hopefully feature the soundtrack Bowie helped write. Brian Henson says there isn't a set timeline for the project yet, but the stage adaptation of the original film is already in the works.

As for a location, Henson told Forbes he envisions it running, "Not necessarily [on] Broadway, it could be for London's West End, but it will be a stage show, a big theatrical version. It’s very exciting."

Labyrinth premiered in 1986 to measly box office earnings and tepid reviews, but Jim Henson's fairytale has since grown into a phenomenon beloved by nostalgic '80s kids and younger generations alike. In the same Forbes interview, Brian Henson also confirmed the 2017 news that a long-anticipated Labyrinth sequel is apparently in development. Though he couldn't give any specifics, Henson confirmed that, "we are still excited about it but the process moves very slowly and very carefully. We're still excited about the idea of a sequel, we are working on something, but nothing that's close enough to say it's about to be in pre-production or anything like that."

While fans eagerly await those projects to come out, they can get their fix when the film returns to theaters across the U.S. on April 29, May 1, and May 2. Don't forget to wear your best Labyrinth swag to the event.

[h/t Forbes]

SECTIONS

arrow
LIVE SMARTER
More from mental floss studios