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Crime Doesn't Pay (Well): The Economics of Bank Robberies

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Hollywood always makes bank robberies look so easy (with some notable exceptions). You do a little planning, throw on a Richard Nixon mask, you’re in and out in a few minutes and then you can live the rest of your life in luxury in some tropical paradise that won’t extradite you.

A real-world bank job, however, isn’t a one-way ticket to luxury.

As economists Barry Reilly, Neil Rickman and Robert Witt explain in a new study, “The return on an average bank robbery is, frankly, rubbish.”

A UK banking organization asked the three to analyze the economic effectiveness of adding some new security measures to bank branches. As part of that, the guys had a little fun and took a look at the economics of bank robbery from the bad guys’ perspective. Their results are hardly the glamorous kind which movies have taught us to expect.

The first problem is that the typical return on a bank robbery is pretty modest. Over a three-year period, one thing or another went wrong and 1/3 of UK bank robbers got away with no money at all. The average haul for a successful heist was around £30,000 (or about $47,000). Even then, about 1/5 of successful robbers were later caught, arrested and convicted, and in some cases the money recovered.

The economists did discover a few ways that would-be Dillingers could increase their gains. Their data showed that each additional member of a robbery crew raises the expected value of the haul by £9,033.20 (~ $14,216 USD). “A larger gang may have spent more time on planning and reconnoitering,” they write. “In short, it may be more professional, and the larger returns may reflect that.” A large crew has one obvious drawback, though: there are more people that have to split the loot. If the crew divvies out the cash equally, “although the total haul goes up, the haul per person goes down.”

They also found that packing heat has a positive effect on the take, and “the threat of firearm use in a bank raid raises the unconditional expected value of the robbery by £10,300.50 [$16,210 USD],” on average.

No Way to Live

Given the average haul of £30,000 and the average full-time UK employment wage of about £26,000, the economists decided that typical bank robbers are not setting themselves up for a life of luxury. Rather, a heist “will give him a modest life-style for no more than 6 months.” The loss to the bank is so low, they say, that it “is not worth the banks’ while to spend as little as £4,500 per cashier position at every branch on [new security features] to deter [robberies].”

But that’s just a one-time job. What if you made a career of knocking over banks? That introduces a different problem. If someone keeps at it and robs two banks a year to maintain their income, the economists say, the odds of getting caught will increase. After three jobs, or a year and a half, his chance of getting busted is about half. One more job, and he’s very likely in prison, which really wreaks havoc on his earning potential.

“As a profitable occupation,” the study concludes, “bank robbery leaves a lot to be desired.”

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This Just In
Little Ross—a Tiny Island in Scotland With a Murderous History—Can Be Yours for $425,000
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Just off Scotland’s southwest coast sits the island of Little Ross. While picturesque, the remote speck of land comes with a tragic backstory: the 1960 murder of a lighthouse keeper, who died at the hands of a colleague. Now, decades after the tragedy made national headlines, the Independent reports that Little Ross is officially on the market and accepting offers over £325,000 (a little under $424,000).

The 29-acre island has a natural harbor, a rocky beach, and a craggy green coastline. There's also a six-bedroom cottage and several ramshackle barns, all of which are included in the purchase. A wind turbine and solar panels provide power (although everyone knows that good ghost stories are best enjoyed by candlelight).

What’s not for sale is the island’s 19th century lighthouse, the scene of lighthouse keeper Hugh Clarke’s 1960 murder. (His assistant, Robert Dickson, was found guilty, and received life imprisonment.)

“Since automation in the late 1960s the lighthouse no longer requires full-time staffing, and only the lighthouse and Sighting Tower are maintained by the Northern Lighthouse Board,” the island's listing states. “It is anticipated that the Northern Lighthouse Board and the purchasers will share the use, and future maintenance of the jetty wall.”

Since Ross Island is only accessible by boat or air, the listing advises that potential buyers be “proficient seamen” (or have access to a helicopter). Fit the bill, and in the market for an unconventional getaway? Check out the pictures below, or visit the island’s listing for more information.

The island of Little Ross, which sits off the Meikle Ross headland on Scotland’s south coast.
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The island of Little Ross, which sits off the Meikle Ross headland on Scotland’s south coast.
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[h/t Independent]

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crime
The Reason Police Officers Tap Your Taillight When They Pull You Over
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Asking a driver for their license and registration is common procedure from police officers during traffic stops. There’s another practice that was once standard across the force but is more of a mystery to the people being pulled over: While approaching a driver’s window, officers will sometimes touch a car's taillight. It's a behavior that dates back decades, though there's no reason to be concerned if it happens at your next traffic stop.

Before cameras were installed on the dashboards of most police cars, tapping the taillight was an inconspicuous way for officers to leave behind evidence of the encounter, according to The Law Dictionary. If something were to happen to the officer during the traffic stop, their interaction with the driver could be traced back to the fingerprints left on the vehicle. This would help other police officers track down a missing member of the force even without video proof of a crime.

The action also started as a way for officers to spook drivers before reaching their window. A pulled-over motorist with a car full of illegal drugs or weapons might scramble to hide any incriminating materials before the officer arrives. The surprise of hearing a knock on their taillight might disrupt this process, increasing their likelihood of getting caught.

Today the risks of this strategy are thought to outweigh the benefits. Touching a taillight poses an unnecessary distraction for officers, not to mention it can give away their position, making them more vulnerable to foul play. And with dash cams now standard in most squad cars, documenting each incident with fingerprints isn’t as necessary as it once was. It’s for these reasons that some police agencies now discourage taillight tapping. But if you see it at your next traffic stop, that doesn’t mean the officer is extra suspicious of you—just that it’s a hard habit to break.

[h/t The Law Dictionary]

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